Network overview
Network map. Select a substation, circuit, line or asset to view its contribution to risk.
Synthetic network
Assets
Portfolio analysis
Modeled outcomes for the selected portfolio: risk by asset and renewal options.
Synthetic network
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Portfolios
Three levels. An org holds networks and users. Each user keeps portfolios in the org, private or shared. A portfolio lists substations, distribution circuits and transmission lines; every study rolls up to it. Create a portfolio from scratch, from a copy, or by selecting members on the map.
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Scenario
Candidate topology
Node prefix
Prepended to every asset id. Use a distinct prefix for each substation in a model.
Outage duration
Restoration-time distribution sampled by the cost stage.
Analysis settings
Each stage requires the stages before it.
Last two stages
Both require outfeed customer counts and a cost per CMI (customer minute interrupted). A study that carries both selects them automatically.
Replacement policies draws the efficient frontier on the Replacement analysis view. It enumerates every combination of the top 10 components. Run time: several minutes.
Review generated logic
One-line
Wire the network, mark infeeds and outfeeds, and define the failure modes.
Customers per outfeed
No outfeeds. Customers are entered once a node has role Outfeed.
Unlicensed account: components, wiring, roles and failure modes are read-only. Age, useful life, decay, P(f), replacement cost and customers can be changed.
No one-line loaded
Import a one-line or draw one with the tools above.
Drawing and uploading one-lines needs a license. Open a substation or circuit from the network or the library to change its assets.
Assets
Each row is a node of the one-line. Edits here change the model.
Edit cells in place. Click a row to open it in the side panel. ⌘/Ctrl+click or Shift+click selects several rows; Del removes them.
Outputs
Files written by the run, with charts. The table under each chart is the CSV.
No results yet
Select a source on Scenario, check the one-line, then run.
Risk on the one-line
Click an asset to open its scorecard. Hover over a cut set below to highlight its members.
Component importance
System failure probability
Per substation and for the whole model.
Component importance
Birnbaum, Fussell-Vesely, risk achievement (f1) and risk reduction (f0) for every failable asset. The curve shows the cumulative share of system risk.
All components
Minimum cut sets
Combinations of components whose simultaneous failure fails the system. Order-1 sets are single points of failure. Hover over a row to highlight its members on the diagram above.
Outage cost
Frequency of each cost band, and the probability of that cost or greater.
Sensitivity
System risk and importance as one asset’s failure probability sweeps from 0 to 1. Exact sweep.
All run files
Raw workspace, including the encoded cut-set family and JSON summaries.
Asset replacement analysis
Asset replacement policies that buy the most risk reduction per dollar within a budget.
Assumptions
Efficient frontier
Each point is an asset replacement policy: the system's annual P(f) with it, against its cost. The line joins the policies that reach each P(f) most cheaply. Moving along it, each extra dollar buys less reduction in P(f). Select a point or a row below to show its replacements on the diagram.
Replacement policies
Assets affected
Assets changed by the selected replacement policy or option. Select a policy on the frontier above, or an option on the chart, table or diagram.
Selected
No replacement options evaluated
Select Optimize to build replacement and redundancy options from the largest failure modes and the Assets sheet, and price each against the cut sets.
Efficiency frontier
Cost against annual saving. Upper left is better. Dashed line: budget.
Expected risk after fix
Annual outage-risk cost: the baseline, then each affordable option.
Payback period
Cumulative discounted net position: fix cost in year 0, then annual avoided risk.
Recommended options within budget
Non-overlapping options within budget, highest return first. The combined figure is computed jointly.
All options, ranked
Ranked by return on investment within budget. Apply writes the fix into the model and reruns the analysis.
Network catalog
Substations, distribution circuits and transmission lines in the selected portfolio. Open substation loads the substation model. Circuits and lines open as studies of their own assets on satellite imagery.
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Select a substation on the left.
Substation library
Standalone substations, each a completed study. A portfolio aggregates them: annual probability that any one fails, and expected number of failures. Open a substation to view its cut sets, importance and sensitivity, or to change a failure probability in a private workspace. New substation adds one from a DWG, a PDF or a blank canvas.
New substation
The source opens in the editor for review. Saving adds the substation to My substations and runs it. Publishing adds it to the library and the portfolio selected.
Or drop the file on this panel.
Decimal degrees. A pasted pair fills both fields.
Customers per outfeed are entered in the editor once outfeeds are marked.
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My substations
Substations changed or added in private workspaces. No other member sees a change until it is published. Publishing replaces the organization copy for every member, or adds the substation as new.
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Private portfolios
Visible to their owner only. Sharing adds a portfolio to the organization.
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Organizations
An organization holds shared networks, substations and portfolios. Every member sees what is published there. Each member's own changes stay private until published.
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Accounts
Every account on the platform. Platform roles hold everywhere: Graph editor draws, uploads and rewires substation and circuit models; Platform administrator also administers accounts. ATS emails hold Platform administrator by domain.
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Examples
Reconstructed substation one-lines. Select an example to view it, or open it in the model to check boundaries and run. In the DWG-traced examples, approximately half the wiring is incorrect. Check connectivity before relying on results.
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Select an example on the left to view its reconstruction.
Runs
Reopen a run to view its outputs and downloads.
Manual
The five study views, in order of use.
Function
Runs a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on a substation and prices the result in dollars. Load or draw a network, define the failure modes, and run. Results are drawn on the same one-line.
The five views
| View | Purpose |
|---|---|
| 1 · Scenario | Network source, outage duration, outage cost per minute, and stages to run. |
| 2 · One-line | Graph editor. Draw or review the one-line, mark infeeds and outfeeds, and set the failure modes that define an outage. |
| 3 · Assets | Asset register as a spreadsheet: age, useful life, decay function, P(failure) and replacement cost for every node, with exposure totals. |
| 4 · Outputs | System failure probability, importance, cut sets, cost distribution and sensitivity, each with its CSV. |
| 5 · Replacement analysis | What-if on any asset; asset replacement policies ranked by risk reduction per dollar. |
Node roles
Each node has one of three roles, shown by color on the canvas.
Failure modes
- Each row is one mode. Outfeeds within a row are AND-ed: the mode occurs only if all are lost together.
- Rows are OR-ed: the system fails if any mode occurs.
- A row with one outfeed: that circuit is critical alone. A row with all outfeeds: total loss only.
- Default: one row per outfeed. Any circuit losing supply is an outage. A row with several outfeeds requires the product of their cut-set families. Beyond two or three outfeeds in a row, a run may not finish.
Loops
Loops are retained. Each loop is a parallel path (double-bus double-breaker, main-and-transfer, bus ties) and becomes an AND gate.
Toolbar and keyboard
| Key | Tool / action |
|---|---|
| V | Move. Drag a node; drag empty canvas to pan; scroll to zoom. Shift+drag box-selects. |
| N | Node. Click empty canvas to add a component. |
| A | Chain. Each click drops a node connected to the previous one. |
| C | Connect. Click one node, then another, to wire them. |
| B | Box select. Drag a box over nodes, then Del, drag, or bulk-edit them. |
| D | Delete. Click a node or wire to remove it. |
| F / L / R | Fit; auto-layout; restructure into connected components laid out by flow. |
Output files
| File | Contains |
|---|---|
pra/sys_fail_prob.csv | Failure probability per substation and for the whole model. |
pra/component_scores.csv | Birnbaum, Fussell-Vesely, f1 and f0 for every failable asset. |
pra/mincutsets.csv | Minimum cut sets, one per row. |
cutsets/all_cut_sets*.csv | Raw cut-set family, with encoded ids and original names. |
consequence/cost_distribution.csv | Cost, pdf, cdf and exceedance. |
consequence/cost_summary.csv | P50/P90/P95/P99, mean, std, and the inputs used. |
sensitivity/*.csv | Swept failure probabilities, Fussell-Vesely response and per-component risk deltas. |
Glossary
| Cut set | A set of components whose simultaneous failure fails the system. Minimum means no subset also fails it. |
| P(system fail) | Probability the system is in a failed state given each component’s failure probability. |
| Birnbaum | Change in system failure probability per unit change in a component’s failure probability: f1 minus f0. |
| Fussell-Vesely | Fraction of total system risk that involves a given component. |
| f1 / f0 | System failure probability with the component forced failed (f1) and forced perfect (f0). |
| CMI | Customer minute interrupted: one customer without supply for one minute. Outages are priced in $/CMI. |
| Expected risk cost | An asset's share of the expected customer outages per year, priced at the P50 outage length and the $/CMI. |